Adaptive · Independent research

Changing the predictions we live by.

Adaptive is an independent research project exploring what predictive processing, and the wider landscape of Bayesian brain theories, might tell us about self-directed change: how we can update the beliefs and predictions that shape our experience of ourselves and our lives.

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First studied predictive processing

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AAP presentation

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First public talk

About

A learning project, not a finished theory.

What’s emerging is something like a survey of the mechanisms thought to be at play in belief-updating, and an attempt to turn them into a practical, grounded method. None of it has yet been peer-reviewed, modelled or empirically tested. It’s a theoretical framework at an early stage, and I’m still very much learning the related fields. I plan to develop it further in a structured academic context from 2027.

Questions I’m exploring

How beliefs and generative models change

The mechanisms behind belief-updating

Where self-directed change fits alongside psychology and therapy

Turning theory into a grounded method

How it began

From theory to practice, and back.

01

Studying it (2017–2020).

I first encountered predictive processing at Macquarie University in 2017, a real hub for early research in the field. I studied it alongside my degree, wrote on it wherever I could, and presented student work at the AAP in 2018.

Macquarie University
AAP 2018
Early thesis work
01

Studying it (2017–2020).

I first encountered predictive processing at Macquarie University in 2017, a real hub for early research in the field. I studied it alongside my degree, wrote on it wherever I could, and presented student work at the AAP in 2018.

Macquarie University
AAP 2018
Early thesis work
02

Living it (2021–2023).

During a break from study, my interest became practical. Facing a challenging situation, I began applying ideas from predictive processing to my own life, and testing them on myself in real time.

Applied
Self-tested
Refined
02

Living it (2021–2023).

During a break from study, my interest became practical. Facing a challenging situation, I began applying ideas from predictive processing to my own life, and testing them on myself in real time.

Applied
Self-tested
Refined
03

Sharing it (2024–now).

In 2024 I hosted a public talk asking whether we could “hack” our own predictive minds. The audience, which included psychology academics, was encouraging, and I’ve been refining the framework since.

Public talk
Ongoing refinement
Return to study 2027
03

Sharing it (2024–now).

In 2024 I hosted a public talk asking whether we could “hack” our own predictive minds. The audience, which included psychology academics, was encouraging, and I’ve been refining the framework since.

Public talk
Ongoing refinement
Return to study 2027
Testimonial

From the talk

Dr Shane Pointing

PhD (Psychology), talk attendee

“Our mental models, including those relating to ourselves, and their flexibility and adaptability are always interesting. Not to mention their intersection with intersubjective "reality". Translating, disseminating and embedding neuroscience understandings takes a lot of focused effort. Ongoing yarning is so important and it is never well enough resourced.

Marianne's content distils and synthesises these understandings into a simple set of practical tools to use if you want to change.”

Cairns, Australia

Have a question, or want to talk about any of this? Get in touch.

If something here is useful, or resonates, I'd like to hear from you.

Cairns, Australia

Have a question, or want to talk about any of this? Get in touch.

If something here is useful, or resonates, I'd like to hear from you.

Cairns, Australia

Have a question, or want to talk about any of this? Get in touch.

If something here is useful, or resonates, I'd like to hear from you.